Ordinarily, concocting a realistic scenario in which the champs would throw away a glistening three-goal margin ? especially these Champs, the Galaxy, who relish the chance to sit back and look to break on the counter ? could be written off as so much fantasy.
And in the end, it certainly may be that a 3-0 lead is just too much to overcome for Seattle in this second leg of the Western Conference final, total goals series.
But Seattle does have a pocket full of hope, and it?s hardly false hope. There?s real reason to see Seattle with a chance in this one ? even if it?s not the mightiest of chances.
Either way, a spot in the 17th MLS Cup is on the line ? and quite possibly host duties, too.
MLS Western Conference finals
Sunday?s Kickoff: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
(Official league preview is here)
On the Seattle Sounders
- Let?s talk about those Sounders? reasons for hope: they start at a pair of decisive, confidence-inspiring wins over the Galaxy in 2012, one of the ?real butt whuppin? variety. That was the 4-0 margin from Sigi Schmind?s men in August, when Fredy Montero and Eddie Johnson both jumped into the scoring pile. Seattle also posted a 2-0 triumph over the Galaxy in Seattle this year, although that one was way back in May when the Galaxy was an absolute mess. (And a mess without center back Omar Gonzalez.)
- Johnson is expected to play after being held out of the lineup in last week?s 3-0 loss to Los Angeles; Schmid called that choice more precautionary, insisting Johnson could have started had that contest been more do-or-die.
- The news isn?t as great for right-sided playmaker Mauro Rosales, who is still not back to full training. Left back Leo Gonzalez is closer to a return, but it?s Rosales (with his creativity, veteran problem-solving in the midfield and invaluable crossing) that this game most requires.
- What Schmid said about Rosales, who did manage his way through an 8-v-8 drill in practice Friday: ?It?s like, ?How close are they to 100 percent? How many minutes do they have to give?? In a game like it is (Sunday), if you have a five-speed, you?ve got to get it into fifth gear, as well. If all you can get it into is third or fourth, then you have to think a little bit.?
- It will be so important for holding midfielder Osvaldo Alonso to police his position with discipline. If he gets too far forward, too eager to add another element into the attack, David Beckham could pick the Sounders apart from those deep-lying positions.
- You could say the same about Seattle?s outside backs. Generally, the order of the day cannot be ?attack, attack, attack.? It has to be ?Attack, attack ? but be smart about it!?
- Michael Gspurning was great in Seattle goal all year ? but did not have a good match last week in Los Angeles. The Sounders will likely need a special save or two from their big Austrian on Sunday.
- Don?t forget, the Sounders faced this exact deficit last year, falling 3-0 to Real Salt Lake in last year?s conference semifinals. Seattle gave the visitors everything they could handle on the back end but still came up a goal short.
On the L.A. Galaxy
- The subplot here that few are talking about (because L.A. has that commanding lead and seems more likely to go through) is that this could be the final match for a Galaxy side blessed with both Beckham and Landon Donovan. We?ll visit more about this one in a subsequent post ? but just stick that in your back pocket for now.
- In fact, given Donovan?s hamstring injury, who knows? He limped out of last week?s win over Seattle and still sounds pretty iffy for this one.
- Even without Donovan, European veteran Christian Wilhelmsson and American Mike Magee, who always rises in the playoffs, are fine choices to play on the outside, flanking Beckham and? ?
- Beckham?s central partner remains a mystery given the Achilles injury Juninho is dealing with. Marcelo Sarvas is the other option, and while he doesn?t quite have Juninho?s range or versatility, an appearance would hardly be a worry point for the Galaxy.
- If L.A. has one, it?s rookie center back Tommy Meyer, although he did just fine alongside Omar Gonzalez a week and a half back as the Galaxy back line dealt professionally with San Jose?s array of front-running threats.
- Robbie Keane was on my ballot as second choice MVP in the league (behind San Jose?s Chris Wondolowski.) He has four goals so far, and one more inserts him into the Top 10 best playoff scoring seasons in league history.
(MORE: Keane inching closer to playoff scoring records)
- What Sounders boss Schmid says about Donovan and Keane, who have such a great understanding in their combined movement off the ball:? ?When Landon and Keane are on their game, I think they?re probably the best forward pair in the league, in terms of just experience and mobility and speed and quickness,?
- Galaxy fans, hide your eyes ? L.A. was on the wrong side of perhaps the best comeback in MLS playoff history. The 2003 Galaxy carried a 2-0 lead into a second leg decider at San Jose. At one point, L.A went up 4-0 on total goals aggregate. And yet, San Jose bombed all the way back to take the series 5-4.
- What Donovan said about how the match could devolve if his team sits in and defends too much. ?If we don?t do a good job of putting them back on their heels and attacking them then they can have wave after wave of attack against us and when that happens, they have talented players that can make plays and it?ll be a dangerous game. ?We don?t want to fall into that, we don?t want a game where we?re giving up 30 shots like Salt Lake did last year and squeaking our way through,? Donovan added. ?We want to put them on the back foot a little bit and we think that we have the quality to do that.?
Bottom line:
Given how well Keane is playing, and knowing how good the Galaxy can be on the counter, it would seem the Galaxy have at least one goal in them. If that happens, Seattle needs four just to extend the series into added time.
Four goals can happen, but it probably won?t here. At the very least, we can say that chances are fairly slim.
So for Seattle it?s about this preciously delicate balance: forward-thinking and aggressive enough to go get the goals, but still safe enough in the back to keep the shutout.
Don?t bet on it to work ? but look Seattle to keep things interesting.
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